20 Second Timeout

2025-26 Western Conference Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder had a historic 68-14 regular season during which they broke the NBA's record for point differential previously held by the legendary 1972 L.A. Lakers. The Thunder also became the first team to lead the league in fewest turnovers committed and most turnovers forced. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won his first scoring title (career-high 32.7 ppg), first regular season MVP, first championship, first Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and first Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP while earning his third straight All-NBA First Team selection. Gilgeous-Alexander is the first player to win the scoring title, regular season MVP, and NBA Finals MVP in the same season since Shaquille O'Neal (2000), and he is just the fourth player in NBA history to win the scoring title, regular season MVP, and the championship in the same season, joining Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1971), Michael Jordan (1991-92, 1996, 1998), and Shaquille O'Neal (2000); Julius Erving accomplished that triple crown feat twice in the ABA (1974, 1976).

The Thunder enter the 2025-26 season with their entire rotation intact from last season. They have no obvious weaknesses, and it would appear that the only things potentially standing in the way of a Thunder repeat are injuries or complacency. 

Last season, the Denver Nuggets tied for the third-fifth best record in the Western Conference, and were slotted into the fourth seed based on tiebreakers. They defeated the L.A. Clippers in seven games in the first round before falling to the powerful Thunder in seven games in the second round. Coach David Adelman, who replaced the fired Michael Malone late in the season, did an excellent job both tactically and in terms of connecting with his players. After losing to the Thunder, the Nuggets traded oft-injured Michael Porter Jr. to the Brooklyn Nets for Cam Johnson, and they also bolstered their depth by acquiring Bruce Brown (who was a member of their 2023 championship team), Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jonas Valanciunas.

Under the coaching of Ime Udoka, the Houston Rockets soared from 22-60 in 2022-23 to 41-41 in Udoka's first season and 52-30 last year. The Rockets led the NBA in rebounding while ranking sixth in both points allowed and defensive field goal percentage; their only weakness was a lack of shooting, which caused the offense to break down, particularly in half court sets. Enter Kevin Durant, who the Rockets acquired from Phoenix in the offseason as part of a seven team deal.  

This preview has the same format as my Eastern Conference Preview; the following eight teams are ranked based on their likelihood of making it to the NBA Finals:

1) Oklahoma City Thunder: It is easy and commonplace to overreact after a team wins a championship, and to buy the notion that more championships are sure to follow, even though the NBA has not had a repeat champion since Golden State's Kevin Durant-led super team won in 2017 and 2018. However, there are legitimate reasons to believe that the Thunder have a great chance to not only repeat but to win multiple titles in the next few years: (1) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a young superstar who plays hard at both ends of the court and he is just entering his prime; (2) the Thunder are elite at both ends of the court; (3) the Thunder are well positioned under the current salary cap rules to keep their core group intact.

Injuries can derail any contender. The Thunder enjoyed excellent health last season, but if that changes then they could fall back. Complacency is another problem that championship teams must battle. The Thunder seem to be focused and hungry, but we won't know for sure until they navigate an entire season as the reigning champion. 

Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged at least 30 ppg for three straight seasons, joining a small group of players that includes Giannis Antetokounmpo (2023-25), James Harden (2018-20), Michael Jordan (1987-93), Bob McAdoo (1974-76), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1971-73), Oscar Robertson (1964-67), and Wilt Chamberlain (1960-66). Gilgeous-Alexander has also posted back to back 25-5-5 seasons, which is one benchmark of all-around greatness.

In general, tanking does not work, and I would push back a bit against anyone who suggests that the Thunder tanked to the top. It is true that the Thunder tanked for two seasons, but before tanking they had already acquired Gilgeous-Alexander in a trade, which means they had their cornerstone player; that approach should be distinguished from the tanking practiced by the Philadelphia 76ers and other teams that stripped down their rosters while hoping to win the NBA Draft Lottery and obtain a franchise player with the number one overall pick. I am not a fan of the tanking that the Thunder did, but there is no denying that it worked, even though it should be emphasized that any team that tanks without already having a player like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is likely to end up in the same sorry state inhabited by the 76ers and other tanking teams. 

Jalen Williams--whose draft rights were acquired in the same trade that brought Gilgeous-Alexander to Oklahoma City--set career highs in scoring (21.6 ppg), rebounding (5.3 rpg), assists (5.1 apg), steals (1.6 spg), and blocked shots (.7 bpg) while earning his first All-Star selection, first All-NBA selection (Third Team), and first All-Defensive Team selection (Second Team). He posted similar numbers (21.4 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.8 apg, 1.4 spg, .4 bpg) during the Thunder's playoff run, capped off by a 40 point outburst in the Thunder's 120-109 NBA Finals game five win versus the Indiana Pacers. It should be emphasized that the Thunder acquired their two best players via trade, not by tanking.

Two offseason acquisitions paid huge dividends for the Thunder: Isaiah Hartenstein (team-high 10.7 rpg) ensured that the Thunder would no longer be pushed around in the paint, and Alex Caruso provided veteran leadership plus ball-hawking defense.

2) Denver Nuggets: The Nuggets pushed the eventual champion Oklahoma City Thunder to seven games in the second round, and then they improved their roster by acquiring Cam Johnson, Bruce Bowen, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jonas Valanciunas while only losing Michael Porter Jr. and Russell Westbrook from their core rotation. The Nuggets' added depth should not only help in terms of regular season seeding but also in terms of not losing ground on the scoreboard during the playoffs when Nikola Jokic is on the bench.

Jokic is a generational player who has performed at an MVP-caliber level for the past five seasons, with no end in sight. He won the regular season MVP in 2021, 2022, and 2024, and he finished second in MVP voting in 2023 and 2025. Last season, Jokic averaged a triple double with a career-high 29.6 ppg (third in the league), 12.7 rpg (third in the league), and a career-high 10.2 apg (second in the league). The only other players who have averaged a triple double for a season are Oscar Robertson (1961-62; he also averaged an aggregate triple double for his first five NBA seasons), and Russell Westbrook (2017-19, 21; he averaged an aggregate triple double for the five seasons spanning 2017-21). 

Denver's success will depend on Jokic's continued greatness plus the health/availability of Jamal Murray (career-high 21.4 ppg in 67 games last season) and Aaron Gordon (14.7 ppg in 51 games last season), and the effective integration of the newcomers into Denver's offensive and defensive systems--but an injury-depleted Denver team without much bench strength pushed the Thunder to seven games in the playoffs, so a healthy and deeper Denver team should be a legitimate championship contender.

3) Houston Rockets: The Rockets made one of the offseason's biggest moves, acquiring Kevin Durant from the Phoenix Suns as part of a seven team deal in which the Rockets gave up Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, and multiple draft picks (including the 10th overall selection in the 2025 NBA Draft). Durant is 37 years old and six years removed from the right Achilles tendon rupture that knocked him out of the 2019 NBA Finals and cost him the entire 2019-20 season, but he is still a very productive player. Last season, he averaged 26.6 ppg (just a shade under his 27.2 ppg career average) with shooting splits of .527/.430/.839--but he missed 20 games, and his Phoenix Suns did not qualify for the playoffs. Durant's efficient offensive game is just what the offensively challenged Rockets need after finishing 21st in field goal percentage and 21st in three point field goal percentage.

The Rockets' best player last season was versatile young center Alperen Sengun, who earned his first All-Star selection by averaging 19.1 ppg, a career-high 10.3 rpg (ninth in the league), and 4.9 apg. Amen Thompson averaged 14.1 ppg, made the All-Defensive First Team, and finished fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting.

Starting point guard Fred VanVleet tore his right ACL during a September 2025 workout, and will likely miss the entire 2025-26 season, putting the onus on Thompson and Reed Sheppard to pick up the slack in an already thin backcourt rotation. Thompson worked on his playmaking this summer in anticipation of making greater contributions in that area even before VanVleet got hurt, and now that work will be put to the test. Sheppard only averaged 4.5 ppg and 1.3 apg in 12.5 mpg last season as a rookie, but the Rockets will need more minutes and production from him unless/until they acquire another point guard.

4) Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards unleashed his inner Stephen Curry last season, setting career highs in three point field goals made (320, first in the league), three point field goals attempted (811, first in the league), and three point field goal percentage (.395). His evolution into a long range bomber is a missed blessing; there is some value in him being able to stretch the floor, but it would be preferable for the Timberwolves if someone else stretched the floor to enable Edwards to attack the hoop with impunity, because many players can learn to shoot but precious few can finish at the rim the way that Edwards can.

The Timberwolves lost in the Western Conference Finals for the second consecutive season, and for the second consecutive season they fell in just five games. Reaching the Western Conference Finals is no longer enough for this team, and getting routed again is unacceptable, but the sad reality for the Timberwolves and their fans is that the Thunder are still a better team, the Nuggets and Rockets made clear offseason improvements, and the Timberwolves stood pat.

Running it back with a good team is commendable, particularly in an era during which teams often have little patience for development and growth, but the Timberwolves will need a lot of development and growth to surpass the Thunder, Nuggets, and Rockets--and they will have to work hard to stay ahead of several other Western Conference teams as well.

5) Golden State Warriors: The Warriors were 25-26 and going nowhere fast last season before they traded for Jimmy Butler, who became the fastest player in franchise history to amass at least 350 points, at least 100 rebounds, and at least 100 assists, doing so in 21 games. The Warriors finished 48-34, earned the seventh seed by beating the Memphis Grizzlies in the Play-In Tournament, and then upset the Houston Rockets in the first round before losing 4-1 to the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

Stephen Curry sustained a series-ending hamstring injury in game one of the Minnesota series. His 24.5 ppg scoring average last season was his lowest full-season scoring average since he scored 23.8 ppg in 2014-15. He has not made the All-NBA First Team since 2021. Curry will be 38 years old by the time the 2026 playoffs begin, and it is fair to wonder how healthy and how productive he can be at this advanced stage of his career; basketball aging is different for agile 6-3 players than it is for big, strong players who can use their height, length, and strength to compensate for diminishing athleticism and quickness.

Butler is an impact player who has a demonstrably limited shelf life; he lifts his teams in the short run, but is rarely happy in the long run. The Warriors have a short timeline with the aging Curry and Draymond Green, so perhaps these "golden guys" can make a deep playoff run, but none of them have reached the NBA Finals since 2023, and two years is a long time for players who are well into their 30s.

The extended Jonathan Kuminga saga highlights the internal instability that has characterized this team for many years; the Warriors finally signed Kuminga, but he is clearly as dissatisfied with the organization as Coach Steve Kerr is with him, so it would not be surprising if the Warriors deal him in a midseason trade. The Warriors' improbable but impressive 2022 championship is a bright spot that makes it easy to overlook the fact that since Kevin Durant left in 2019 the Warriors have missed the playoffs three times and lost in the second round twice.

Championship or bust may be this team's mindset, but second round and sayonara is likely the best case scenario. 

6) L.A. Lakers: It will be interesting to see if the LeBron James public relations machine known as ESPN hypes up the Lakers as championship contenders, or if they give James the opportunity for a soft landing by lowering expectations. It is not clear what the Lakers expected when they plucked James from Cleveland in 2018, but it is reasonable to suggest that they expected more than one championship and it is certain that they did not expect to fail to advance past the first round five times in seven years. 

After James engineered Anthony Davis' arrival in L.A. in 2019, James and the Lakers thought that they had built a super team that could both win now and be positioned for a promising long-term future with Davis as the centerpiece after James retired. In the wake of the Lakers trading Davis to Dallas for Luka Doncic, we can close the book on the James-Davis era in L.A.: they won the 2020 "bubble title," and after that they had one Western Conference Finals appearance, two first round losses, and one season during which they did not even qualify for the Play-In Tournament. 

James claims that he had no idea that the Lakers planned to swap Davis for Doncic, but that is difficult to believe considering that James seems to have a heavy hand in every personnel (and coaching) move that the Lakers have made since he joined the team. Doncic, who earned five straight All-NBA First Team selections before missing the cut in his first season in L.A., led the Mavericks to the 2024 NBA Finals and is a more dynamic offensive weapon than Davis ever was. The Lakers went 18-10 during the regular season with Doncic in the lineup as Doncic became the fastest player in Lakers history to amass at least 700 points, at least 200 rebounds, and at least 200 assists; he averaged 28.2 ppg, 8.1 rpg, and 7.5 apg as a Laker in the regular season, and he averaged 30.2 ppg, 7.0 rpg, and 5.8 apg as the third seeded Lakers lost 4-1 to sixth seeded Minnesota in the first round.

The Mavericks traded Doncic because they were purportedly concerned about his conditioning, and it has been widely reported that during this past summer Doncic trained harder than he ever has to enter this season in the best shape of his life. James is still remarkably productive--averaging 24.4 ppg, 8.2 apg, and 7.8 rpg last season as a 40 year old to earn his 21st All-Star selection and his 21st selection to the All-NBA Team (extending his all-time records in both categories)--but the Lakers are Doncic's team now. This is the first time in James' career that he is clearly not the best player on his own team, and it will be interesting to see how Doncic and James navigate these uncharted waters.

During the Lakers' cameo playoff appearance, the Timberwolves bludgeoned them in the paint, so the Lakers addressed that weakness by signing Deandre Ayton, who was Phoenix' starting center when the Suns reached the 2021 NBA Finals but is viewed as a low motor player despite posting career averages of 16.4 ppg and 10.5 rpg. If Ayton rebounds, defends, and serves as a pick and roll lob threat for Doncic then the Lakers could be quite good, but Ayton has not played in at least 70 games in a season since his 2018-19 rookie campaign, and he played in just 40 games for Portland last season; if Ayton is unavailable or indifferent then the Lakers do not have enough size or defensive presence to match up with the elite teams.

Coach J.J. Redick acts and talks like he has all of the answers, but Redick was often outcoached last season, and before the Lakers acquired Doncic they had a mediocre offense and an atrocious defense. The Lakers improved at both ends of the court down the stretch, but Minnesota's Chris Finch coached circles around Redick in the first round. It is baffling that the Lakers recently extended Redick's contract--which had three years remaining--for an additional two years. James and Redick are friends who used to do a podcast together, so maybe securing a long-term payday for Redick is a gift from James who, presumably, will not be playing five years from now; there is no rational reason to extend Redick other than keeping James happy, and as a result of this decision the Lakers will be paying Redick long after James retires, even if Redick is not coaching the team by that time.

If Doncic and James stay healthy and Ayton stays focused, the Lakers could win 50 games again, but in the tough Western Conference that might not be good enough to claim the third seed again; the Lakers tied for third-fifth in the West with a 50-32 record but received the third seed on tiebreaks, so they could go 50-32 in 2025-26 and end up in the bottom half of the playoff bracket.

The Lakers may have a 10 game winning streak that puts ESPN's perpetual hype machine into overdrive, but when the going gets tough in the playoffs the Lakers will lose in the first round for the third straight year. 

7) San Antonio Spurs: There are no more excuses for missing the playoffs. The Spurs have a generational talent--the 2024 NBA Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama--plus they have veteran former All-Star guard De'Aaron Fox, and they also have 2025 NBA Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle. I am skeptical about the long term prospects of teams that tanked--and I am not convinced that the Spurs are on a championship track--but the Spurs have too much talent to not at least qualify for the playoffs.

The Spurs face the same challenges that young teams often have to overcome: poor shot selection (the Spurs ranked 17th in field goal percentage), lack of physicality (they ranked 19th in rebounding), and lack of defensive focus (they ranked 23rd in points allowed and 24th in defensive field goal percentage). They are not going to fix all of those problems in one season, but with Wembanyama anchoring the paint defensively and Fox running the show offensively, the Spurs should surpass the 40 win mark for the first time since 2018-19, the last season that they qualified for the playoffs. 

8) Dallas Mavericks: Kyrie Irving will miss most if not all of the season after tearing his left ACL late last season, but the cupboard is not bare; the Mavericks have Anthony Davis, the big man duo of Daniel Gafford/Dereck Lively II, and number one overall draft pick Cooper Flagg, who is expected to make an immediate contribution as a scorer, playmaker, and solid defensive player.

Davis had offseason surgery for a detached retina that he suffered last season, but he is not expected to miss any time this season as a result of the procedure. Davis averaged 24.7 ppg, 11.6 rpg, 3.5 apg, and 2.2 bpg last season, but he played in just 51 games; he averaged 20.0 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 4.4 apg, and 2.2 bpg in nine games with the Mavericks after being traded from the Lakers for Luka Doncic.

Daniel Gafford averaged 12.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg, and 1.8 bpg while shooting .702 from the field, but he only played in 57 games. Lively matched Gafford's .702 field goal percentage while producing 8.7 ppg, 7.5 rpg, and 1.6 bpg in 36 games.  

All of that big production from the big men in a small number of games added up to a 39-43 record, and a 1-1 showing in the Play-In Tournament, which was not sufficient to qualify for the playoffs. 

Klay Thompson will presumably shift from small forward back to his natural shooting guard position to make room in the starting lineup for Flagg. Thompson shot at least .400 from three point range in each of his first eight seasons, but he shot at least .400 from beyond the arc just once in the past four seasons after missing two full seasons due to injury. Last season, he scored 14.0 ppg--his lowest average since his rookie season--with shooting splits of .412/.391/.905. 

D'Angelo Russell will run the point until Irving returns. Russell earned his lone All-Star selection in 2019--his fourth NBA season--but Dallas is his fourth team since 2023. In the 2024 playoffs, he scored 23 points in the Lakers' game two loss to Denver, and then scored zero points in the Lakers' game three loss; such wild fluctuations explain both why teams give up on him and why teams give him another chance.

With decent health and a productive Flagg, this team could be good; add Irving to the mix, and this team could be very good--but the sad reality for Mavericks fans is that Davis and Lively will both likely miss extended time due to injuries, Russell is unreliable at best, and it is rare for a rookie to be a significant contributor on a contending team. The only Dallas players who participated in at least 70 games last season are Spencer Dinwiddie--who signed with Charlotte in the offseason--and Thompson.

The teams that finish seventh through 10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will qualify for the playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are.

In 2019, the L.A. Clippers traded Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a treasure trove of draft picks (one of which became All-Star Jalen Williams) for Paul George; this deal was one of Kawhi Leonard's many preconditions for joining the Clippers. It is a huge understatement to say that the Clippers' plan backfired; while Gilgeous-Alexander is the centerpiece of a potential Thunder dynasty (with Williams as a valuable second option), the Clippers have reached the Western Conference Finals just once in the Leonard era, they have lost in the first round in each of the past three seasons, and the NBA is now investigating possible salary cap circumvention connected with the Leonard signing. Instead of having a young superstar who has not even reached his prime yet, the Clippers have not just the oldest team in the NBA now but the oldest team in NBA history (average age: 33.2 years).

Leonard has played in at least 60 regular season games just once in his six seasons with the Clippers. The Clippers' two big free agent signings are Bradley Beal and Chris Paul. Beal fits right in with Leonard and the Clippers: he has played in at least 60 regular season games once since 2019. Paul has not participated in the playoffs since he averaged 12.4 ppg on .418 field goal shooting while playing in seven of Phoenix' 11 postseason games in 2023, but if the Clippers make the playoffs he will have an opportunity to extend his all-time record of five blown 2-0 series leads. The Clippers will miss the reliable Norm Powell, who they shipped to Miami for John Collins as part of a three team deal.

The Memphis Grizzlies were in second place in the Western Conference before a second half of the season collapse that led to the late season firing of Coach Taylor Jenkins and then (after a first round playoff loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder) the trade of Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic for Cole Anthony, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and four first round draft picks. The Grizzlies appear to be stuck in the middle as a team that is not contending but also not committed to full scale rebuilding.

The Sacramento Kings fired 2023 NBA Coach of the Year Mike Brown after starting the season 13-18, and they went 27-24 the rest of the way under Doug Christie. During the season, the Kings traded De'Aaron Fox in a three team deal that brought Zach LaVine to Sacramento, reuniting him with his former Chicago teammate DeMar DeRozan. LaVine and DeRozan did not advance past the first round with the Bulls, and this "Chicago West" duo is unlikely to lead the Kings to the 2026 playoffs. 

The Portland Trail Blazers traded leading scorer Anfenee Simons (19.3 ppg) to Boston for Jrue Holiday, who has been a great complementary player for championship teams in Milwaukee (2021) and Boston (2024) but is now 35 years old and showing signs of decline at both ends of the court. They also signed prodigal son Damian Lillard, who will likely miss the entire season after suffering a torn left Achilles during the 2025 playoffs while playing for the Milwaukee Bucks, who stretched and waived his contract to clear space to sign Myles Turner. The continued development of Deni Avidja and Toumani Camara are bright spots in an otherwise cloudy picture. 

The Phoenix Suns hit the reset button after their "Big Three" of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal failed to deliver a single playoff series win in two seasons, and did not even qualify for postseason play last year. The Suns parted ways with Durant, Beal, Tyus Jones, Jusuf Nurkic, and most of the veterans on the roster except for Booker. Core acquisitions include Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, and Mark Williams, who will be the starting center if he can stay healthy. The Suns also replaced coach Mike Budenholzer with Jordan Ott, who has no NBA head coaching experience. The Suns were wise to break up an expensive team that did not even come close to contending for a championship, but the current roster is unlikely to make the playoffs in the loaded Western Conference. 

As has been the case for several seasons, the New Orleans Pelicans' hopes depend on Zion Williamson's health. Williamson has played in 30 games or less four times in six years, including missing the entire 2021-22 season due to injury, so it is reasonable to expect that (1) he will miss a lot of games and (2) the Pelicans will miss the playoffs.

The Utah Jazz pulled an Ace (Ace Bailey) instead of capturing the (Cooper) Flagg in the NBA Draft Lottery, providing yet another example of why tanking generally does not pay off. 

**********

Note:

I correctly picked five of the eight 2025 Western Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2024: 5/8
2023: 6/8
2022: 5/8
2021: 6/8
2020: 6/8
2019: 7/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 7/8
2016: 6/8
2015: 7/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 6/8
2012: 7/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 7/8
2009: 7/8
2008: 7/8
2007: 6/8
2006: 6/8

2006-2024 Total: 123/160 (.769)

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, L.A. Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 12:02 PM

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2025-26 Eastern Conference Preview

Injuries and salary cap considerations will turn the Eastern Conference standings upside down. The Indiana Pacers made it to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2024 and 2025, and they pushed the dominant Oklahoma City Thunder to game seven of the 2025 NBA Finals before Tyrese Haliburton ruptured his right Achilles tendon. The Thunder outlasted the Pacers in game seven, and the Pacers will have to survive the 2025-26 season without Haliburton. The Pacers also lost starting center Myles Turner, who signed with the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Boston Celtics won the 2024 NBA championship, advanced to the 2022 NBA Finals before losing to the Golden State Warriors, and reached the Eastern Conference Finals six times in an eight year span (2017-18, 2020, 2022-24), but they are now facing a "gap year" after losing Jayson Tatum to a right Achilles tendon rupture in the second round of the 2025 NBA playoffs. With Tatum out of action, the Celtics decided to cut costs, trading Jrue Holiday to Portland for Anfernee Simons, and shipping Kristaps Porzingis to Atlanta in a three team deal that brought Georges Niang and a 2025 second round pick to Boston. The Celtics also did not re-sign backup center Luke Cornet, and did not retain the services of free agent Al Horford, who was their starting center for the better part of the past four seasons before signing with Golden State just prior to the start of the 2025-26 season.

With Indiana and Boston out of the championship contention picture, the path is wide open for the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers to battle for Eastern Conference supremacy, while the young Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic look to build on the potential that they demonstrated last season, and the retooled Milwaukee Bucks seek to vault back to contender status after falling short since winning the 2021 NBA title. 

Despite reaching the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000, the New York Knicks fired Coach Tom Thibodeau and replaced him with two-time NBA Coach of the Year (2009 with Cleveland, 2023 with Sacramento) Mike Brown. Brown's .599 regular season career winning percentage ranks 10th all-time among coaches with at least 400 regular season wins, and his .556 playoff career winning percentage ranks 15th all-time among coaches with at least 40 playoff wins. Thibodeau's career winning percentages are .579 and .466 respectively. Neither Brown nor Thibodeau has won a championship as a head coach, and both have won at least one championship as an assistant coach (four for Brown, one for Thibodeau). Last season, the Knicks ranked ninth in points allowed but just 25th in defensive field goal percentage; in 2023-24, the Knicks ranked second in points allowed and 15th in defensive field goal percentage. A major challenge for Brown will be to build a strong defense despite having two poor defenders--Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns--playing major minutes as the focal points of an offense that ranked fifth in field goal percentage and ninth in scoring last season.

Cleveland finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference (64-18, the second best mark in franchise history) before losing in the second round for the second year in a row. The Cavaliers have established that they can win a lot of regular season games, but they have not proven that they can sustain a lengthy playoff run. 

Listed below are the eight teams that I expect to qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs, ranked based on their likelihood of advancing to the NBA Finals:

1) New York Knicks: The Knicks fired Coach Tom Thibodeau even though he led the team to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000 while taking the Knicks to three straight playoff appearances for the first time since 2011-13. On the surface, it looks odd to get rid of a coach who has been so successful, but there are historical precedents for teams doing well after replacing winning coaches: Paul Westhead led the L.A. Lakers to the 1980 NBA title, but the Lakers replaced him with Pat Riley in 1981, and Riley coached the Lakers to four NBA titles (1982, 1985, 1987-88); Doug Collins led the Chicago Bulls to three straight playoff berths--culminating in reaching the Eastern Conference Finals in 1989--but the Bulls replaced him with Phil Jackson prior to the 1989-90 season, and Jackson coached the Bulls to six NBA titles (1991-93, 1996-98). 

There are some obvious differences between the 1980s Lakers/1990s Bulls and the current New York Knicks, with the foremost difference being that the Lakers had two Pantheon members (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Magic Johnson) and the Bulls had one Pantheon member (Michael Jordan) plus a player who should be ranked no lower than 25th all-time (Scottie Pippen), while the Knicks do not have any players who are even close to Pantheon level. 

The Knicks' best player, Jalen Brunson, is a 6-2 point guard with a shoot-first mentality; although he averaged a career-high 7.3 apg (eighth in the league) last season, his primary skill is scoring, and he has averaged at least 24.0 ppg in each of the last three seasons, peaking at 28.7 ppg in 2023-24 and scoring 26.0 ppg (eighth in the league) last season. The Knicks' second best player, Karl-Anthony Towns, has averaged at least 20 ppg in each of the last nine seasons, including 24.4 ppg (12th in the league) last season. Towns ranked second in the NBA with a career-high 12.8 rpg last season, but his poor defense and propensity to commit silly fouls are significant liabilities, particularly in the playoffs.

The Indiana Pacers eliminated the Knicks from the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, but the depleted Pacers do not figure to be a playoff threat--or even a playoff team--this season. The Boston Celtics have been an Eastern Conference Finals staple since 2017, but they will take a step (or several steps) back this season. I don't favor the Cleveland Cavaliers in a best of seven playoff series versus an elite team. Therefore, by process of elimination, the Knicks look like the team to beat in the Eastern Conference. 

It was not fair to fire Thibodeau, who did a great job with the Knicks, but Brown is also an excellent coach, and the Knicks seem to be in perfect position to benefit from the general weakening of the Eastern Conference.

2) Cleveland Cavaliers: In his first season as Cleveland's coach, Kenny Atkinson won the Coach of the Year award after leading the Cavaliers to a 64-18 record--but some of the shine from that success was dulled by losing in the second round for the second consecutive season. The Cavaliers have the necessary pieces to make a championship run, including an All-NBA First Team guard (Donovan Mitchell), the 2025 Defensive Player of the Year (Evan Mobley), an All-Star point guard (Darius Garland), and a center who scores efficiently in the paint while also rebounding well (Jarrett Allen). 

However, the playoff whole has not yet equaled the sum of the parts. The Knicks bullied the Cavaliers in the 2023 playoffs, the Celtics cruised past the Cavaliers 4-1 in the 2024 playoffs, and the Pacers shredded the Cavaliers' vaunted defense en route to a 4-1 win in the 2025 playoffs. The Cavaliers' playoff failures have been caused by lack of physicality and lack of game plan discipline, particularly on defense. Injuries have played a role, too, particularly last year, but most championship teams overcome some injury-related adversity.

The Cavaliers lost bench sparkplug Ty Jerome to the Memphis Grizzlies, and their only other significant roster move was trading Isaac Okoro to the Chicago Bulls for the oft-injured but very talented Lonzo Ball. Ball has never played more than 63 games in a season, and he has played in just 33 games since the 2021-22 season, but if he can stay healthy he can provide playmaking and tenacious defense.

The Eastern Conference should be wide open, but--as noted above--I don't trust the Cavaliers versus the Knicks in a best of seven series.

3) Orlando Magic: Injuries sidetracked the Magic's ascent last season, but with their key players healthy and some new players--most notably Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones--in the fold, the Magic expect to be one of the Eastern Conference's top teams. 

The Magic have a star or potential star in the paint, on the wing, and at guard. Power forward Paolo Banchero set career highs in scoring (25.9 ppg) and rebounding (7.5 rpg) but injuries limited him to 46 games. He is on a trajectory to be an All-NBA player, and he has already shown--albeit in a small sample size of just 12 playoff games--the ability to elevate his game in the postseason, with career playoff averages of 28.0 ppg and 8.5 rpg. Small forward Franz Wagner also set career highs in scoring (24.2 ppg) and rebounding (5.7 rpg), but he played in just 60 games after playing at least 72 games in each of his first three seasons. Guard Jalen Suggs ranked third on the team in scoring (16.2 ppg) before a knee injury ended his season after 35 games.  

The slow-paced Magic ranked 28th in points scored, 27th in field goal percentage, first in points allowed, and 17th in defensive field goal percentage. Improved health should help at both ends of the court, but three point shooting remains a major concern until proven otherwise; the Magic ranked 30th (last) in the NBA in both three point field goals made and three point field goal percentage. Bane should boost the Magic's rankings in both categories, as his career three point field goal percentage (.410) ranks 24th in ABA/NBA history, barely behind renowned "Splash Brother" Klay Thompson, and ahead of many noted long-range marksmen, including Dale Ellis, Mark Price, Ray Allen, and Glen Rice.

4) Milwaukee Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the NBA's elite players. Last season, the two-time regular season MVP (2019, 2020) and 2021 NBA Finals MVP finished third in regular season MVP voting after ranking second in the league in scoring (30.4 ppg), sixth in rebounding (11.9 rpg), and 13th in assists (6.5 apg, just a fraction short of the career high he set in 2023-24). He made the All-NBA First Team for the seventh straight year, and he finished in the top nine (eighth) in Defensive Player of the Year voting for the seventh straight year. The two-time Defensive Player of the Year has not made the All-Defensive Team since 2022, but he is still impactful at that end of the court. His only skill set weaknesses are free throw shooting (.617 last season, .693 for his career) and three point shooting (.222 last season, .284 for his career).

The Bucks added Myles Turner--fresh off of Indiana's run to the NBA Finals and back to back appearances in the Eastern Conference Finals--plus Cole Anthony and Gary Harris. To sign Turner, the Bucks stretched and waived Damian Lillard, who likely will not play this season after suffering a left Achilles tear. The Bucks also parted ways with Brook Lopez and Pat Connaughton. Lopez was a key member of Milwaukee's 2021 championship team, but he is 37 years old, so the 29 year old Turner is an upgrade in terms of both productivity and age. Anthony set career highs in scoring (16.3 ppg) and assists (5.7 apg) with Orlando in 2021-22, so he is capable of being the starting point guard; he averaged 9.4 ppg and 2.9 apg last season with Orlando, starting 22 of 67 games. Overall, the Bucks gained a lot more than they lost with these roster moves.

In his first full season as Milwaukee's coach, Doc Rivers posted a 48-34 record, the 14th time he led a team to at least 48 wins. His coaching resume includes one NBA title (Boston, 2008) and two Eastern Conference championships (Boston, 2008 and 2010), but also three blown 3-1 playoff series leads (Orlando Magic versus Detroit Pistons in 2003, L.A. Clippers versus Houston Rockets in 2015, and L.A. Clippers versus Denver Nuggets in 2020). To be fair, Rivers' teams were underdogs in two of those series (2003, 2015); also, Rivers coached Chris Paul in one of those series (2015), and Paul is one of the NBA's all-time playoff chokers, having "led" his teams to defeat a record five times after taking 2-0 series leads while also posting a 3-5 record in game sevens. More often than not, Rivers has maximized the potential of the teams that he coached.

Kyle Kuzma, who the Bucks acquired in a four team midseason trade that involved sending Khris Middleton to the Washington Wizards, averaged 14.5 ppg in 29 games with Milwaukee, ranking third on the team behind Antetlkounmpo and Lillard. Kuzma was a member of the L.A. Lakers' 2020 championship team, and the Bucks need for him to be a consistent scoring threat while also providing solid rebounding. 

Bobby Portis missed 25 games last season due to an NBA suspension for using a banned substance. He is a physically imposing player who provides defense, rebounding, three point shooting, and timely scoring. Portis finished third in Sixth Man of the Year voting in 2023 and 2024. 

Getting rid of Lillard--who would not have been able to play this season anyway--is addition by subtraction, particularly defensively. Turner provides athleticism and defense. I think that the Bucks will be better than most analysts are predicting.

5) Detroit Pistons: The Pistons hired J.B. Bickerstaff after their division rival Cavaliers fired him, and Bickerstaff finished second in Coach of the Year balloting as the Pistons improved from 14-68 to 44-38. Most of the team's sudden growth happened on defense, as the Pistons vaulted from 24th in defensive field goal percentage and 26th in points allowed to ninth and 14th respectively.

Cade Cunningham is an emerging star after averaging a career-high 26.1 ppg (seventh in the league) last season while also setting career highs in assists (9.1 apg, fourth in the league), field goal percentage (.469), and three point field goal percentage (.356). He earned his first All-Star selection and his first All-NBA Team selection (Third Team) while finishing seventh in MVP voting. Cunningham averaged 25.0 ppg, 8.7 apg, and 8.3 rpg in the Pistons' 4-2 first round loss to the New York Knicks.

Despite their successful season, the Pistons made several changes to their rotation, acquiring Caris LeVert, Duncan Robinson, and Javonte Green while losing Tim Hardaway Jr., Dennis Schroder, and Malik Beasley. As a result of those moves, the Pistons have less talent and depth.

Beasley played in all 82 games, finished third on the team in scoring (16.3 ppg), led the team in three point field goal percentage (.416), led the team in three point field goals made (319, second in the league), and finished second in Sixth Man of the Year voting. Schroder ranked second on the team in assists (5.3 apg), but he shot just .378 from the field. Hardaway averaged 11.0 ppg and ranked second on the team in three point field goals made (168). 

LeVert averaged a career-high 20.2 ppg in 2020-21, but he has averaged 14.0 ppg or less in each of the past three seasons. Robinson is a career .397 three point shooter, but he provides little else beyond perimeter shooting and he is a defensive liability. Green has now been with five teams in seven seasons, and his career scoring average is 5.3 ppg.

Despite the personnel losses, there are two reasons that the Pistons should be better this season than they were last season: (1) their young players will continue to improve, and (2) the Eastern Conference is much weaker than it was last season.

6) Atlanta Hawks: I do not rank the Hawks as highly as some commentators, because I am skeptical that any team that relies heavily on Trae Young can consistently win a lot of regular season games or go far in the playoffs; the Hawks have reached the playoffs three times in Young's seven season career, and they have advanced past the first round once. The Hawks will be depending heavily on offseason acquisitions Kristaps Porzingis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to fortify a leaky defense that ranked 27th in points allowed and 28th in defensive field goal percentage--but Porzingis has played in at least 65 games in a season just once since 2017, and even though Alexander-Walker is a good defensive player he is not good enough to transform a team's entire defensive identity.

That being said, the Hawks have not only upgraded their overall talent but they have improved their defense, so it is conceivable that in a weakened Eastern Conference this team could finish in the top four--but even if that happens, I would be surprised if the Hawks advance past the second round.

7) Philadelphia 76ers: The 76ers are a difficult team to rank; if their "Big Three" players each play at least 70 games then the 76ers should finish in the top four in the Eastern Conference's regular season standings--but Joel Embiid's career-high is 68 games (he played in 19 games last season and 39 games two seasons ago), Paul George has played in at least 70 games just once in the past six seasons, and Tyrese Maxey played in just 52 games last season and has played in at least 70 games just twice in his five season career. The 76ers have never advanced past the second round since they began "tanking to the top," and it is unlikely that they will advance past the second round this season, regardless of how they perform during the regular season--but in a decimated Eastern Conference they will probably scrape together enough regular season wins to reach the Play-In Tournament and then slip into the playoffs.

8) Miami Heat: The Heat have reached the playoffs for six straight seasons, and during that time they advanced to the NBA Finals twice (2020, 2023). A good case could be made that Erik Spoelstra is the NBA's best coach, and he is a major reason that the Heat consistently play well regardless of injuries, roster turnover, and other challenges.

The Heat suffered a 10 game losing streak soon after trading the disgruntled Jimmy Butler to the Golden State Warriors last season, but then they rallied to win six games in a row en route to winning eight of their last 12 games to qualify for the Play-In Tournament. They then won two Play-In Tournament games to earn a first round matchup with the number one seeded Cleveland Cavaliers, who promptly obliterated the overmatched Heat, 4-0. That series demonstrated that there are limits to how far a team can advance just with great coaching. 

The Heat have a solid core group of players who have made the All-Star team at least once--Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, and Andrew Wiggins--but they lack a bona fide MVP-level superstar, and the reality in the NBA is that few teams win a championship without that kind of player. Herro had offseason foot surgery, and is expected to miss the first few weeks of the season, which means that the Heat may start slowly and have to rally to qualify for the Play-In Tournament, but they have enough talent and toughness to do that.

The Heat will play tenacious defense and they will try to cobble together a decent offense, but they are unlikely to advance past the first round. 

The teams that finish seventh through 10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will qualify for the playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are. 

During the Boston Celtics' 2024 championship run, Jaylen Brown won the Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP and the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP. It will be interesting to watch Brown try to carry the Celtics sans Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Al Horford; my prediction is that Boston's defense is going to take a major step backwards after ranking second in points allowed and second in defensive field goal percentage, and I expect that Boston's three point-centric offense is going to struggle without Tatum drawing extra attention from opposing defenses. Anfernee Simons may set career-highs in scoring and three point field goals made, but he will give up at least as much on defense as he provides on offense.

Josh Giddey averaged 21.2 ppg, 10.7 rpg, and 9.3 apg in 19 games after the All-Star break, but for the Chicago Bulls to advance past the Play-In Tournament and earn a playoff berth--which the Bulls have done just once since 2018--they will not only need sustained high level performance from Giddey but a much stronger collective performance defensively.

Losing Tyrese Haliburton to injury and Myles Turner to free agency are crippling blows for the Indiana Pacers; if they can fight their way to the 10th seed and get Haliburton back in time for the Play-In Tournament then maybe they can grab the eighth seed, but the most likely scenario is that this team will win less than 35 games. 

A healthy season from Brandon Ingram--which is far from certain, considering that he has not played more than 65 games in a season since his rookie campaign (2016-17)--could lift the Raptors into the Play-In Tournament, but the most likely outcome is another trip to the Draft Lottery.

The Brooklyn Nets added Michael Porter Jr., who was an injury prone scorer for the Denver Nuggets and who played an important role for Denver's 2023 championship team. The Nets appear to be trying to tank without overtly tanking. Porter Jr. will likely average over 20 ppg and provide some entertainment/excitement, but a team with him as the number one option is unlikely to make the playoffs, even in the relatively weak Eastern Conference.

Brandon Miller is a promising young player who has displayed All-Star potential, and the Charlotte Hornets improved defensively last season, but the roster still lacks enough overall talent and depth to contend for a playoff berth. 

I will say the same thing about the Washington Wizards that I said in my 2024-25 Eastern Conference Preview: the Wizards "have not been relevant since Russell Westbrook carried the team that should be known as the "Wheeze-hards" to the 2021 playoffs."

**********
Note:

I correctly picked seven of the eight 2025 Eastern Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2024: 7/8
2023: 7/8
2022: 6/8
2021: 6/8
2020: 7/8
2019: 6/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 5/8
2016: 5/8
2015: 5/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 7/8
2012: 8/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 6/8
2009: 6/8
2008: 5/8
2007: 7/8
2006: 6/8

2006-2025 Total: 124/160 (.775)

Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers

posted by David Friedman @ 11:41 AM

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Evaluating The Athletic's The Basketball 100, Focusing on the Top 15

David Aldridge and John Hollinger plus The Athletic staff are listed as co-authors of The Basketball 100, a book that ranks in order the top 100 players in pro basketball history. David Aldridge is one of the few modern NBA journalists who I respect: he writes well, and his takes are reasonable, even if I don't always agree with him, although I would say that I agree with him most of the time. In his Introduction to The Basketball 100, he declares, "If you truly love the game, you appreciate its history, and the stars of the early era, from George Mikan and Bob Cousy to Bob Pettit and Dolph Schayes. They were not plumbers and firemen; they were the best athletes of their generation, men to be respected." That last comment is a direct--and deserved--shot fired at J.J. Redick, who demeaned Bob Cousy because, in Redick's shameful words, Cousy played against "plumbers and firemen."

Although Aldridge's statement provides hope that the book will speak truth to power, there are reasons to be skeptical about the book as well. Aldridge talked about the book on a podcast with Bomani Jones, and Aldridge mentioned that while doing research he was surprised to learn that Dave Bing suffered an eye injury as a child that left him with blurred vision. I wrote about Bing's childhood eye injury in my 2007 Basketball Times profile of Bing, and I was not breaking news when I mentioned that fact, so it is surprising that a veteran NBA journalist did not know this--which is not to say that Aldridge is required to read my articles or to know every fact about every player, but rather that it is becoming increasingly evident that even among the best journalists there are very few (if any) who have truly immersed themselves in basketball history the way that I have done for more than 40 years. I often disagree with what others say about basketball players past and present simply because I am working with a much deeper set of facts and context than they are. That may sound arrogant, but anyone who takes the time to read even a fraction of the several million words that I have written about basketball can independently evaluate my knowledge of basketball history.

In his chapter about Bing, Aldridge asserts (p. 16) that Bing's single season scoring record at Syracuse stood for 23 years until Sherman Douglas broke it--but anyone who is familiar with basketball history does not have to consult Syracuse's record book to know that (1) Bing still holds that record, and (2) Douglas does not even rank in Syracuse's single season scoring top 10, never mind ranking first. It is disappointing to find such a glaring mistake in a book that touts itself as a definitive source for player rankings; if the writers, editors, and proofreaders employed by The Athletic do not know basic facts then why should readers place value on the book's player rankings?

Hollinger is one of many "stat gurus" who talked his way into various media jobs and even an NBA front office position by asserting this his proprietary statistic--Hollinger calls his PER, and other "stat gurus" have other proprietary statistics that they tout--is the best way to evaluate and rank basketball players and basketball teams. The concept of intelligently using statistics to objectively evaluate and rank basketball players sounds great, but in practice the use of "advanced basketball statistics" far too often results in ludicrous conclusions such as James Harden is a better scorer than Michael Jordan, and tanking is the best way to build an NBA team (never mind the fact that the data shows that tanking does not work). Utilize "advanced basketball statistics" in theory and you will build the best basketball team ever; utilize "advanced basketball statistics" in the real world and you will build the Philadelphia 76ers, who have not advanced past the second round of the playoffs despite hiring two of the most famous "stat gurus"--first Sam Hinkie and then more recently Daryl Morey--to run their basketball operations. The most incredible thing about Morey is that he has managed to stay employed as the main person running basketball operations for first the Houston Rockets and now the Philadelphia 76ers despite his pedestrian resume.

Not content with making money from hawking PER, Hollinger created a new "advanced basketball statistic" for The Basketball 100: GOAT points. I will spare you the details of how GOAT points work, because it can be summarized the same way that most such systems can be summarized: the system's creator arbitrarily selected the numbers that matter most to him, arbitrarily assigned weights to those numbers, and then declared that this is the best way to objectively rank basketball players. Everyone should want to find just one person who loves him or her as much as "stat gurus" love James Harden. The Basketball 100 ranked Harden 34th all-time--which is absurdly high--but Hollinger's GOAT points place Harden 13th, just ahead of Oscar Robertson, six spots ahead of Hakeem Olajuwon, seven spots ahead of Jerry West, eight spots ahead of Nikola Jokic, nine spots ahead of Giannis Antetokounmpo, 14 spots ahead of Stephen Curry, and 15 spots ahead of Julius Erving. Harden has had more "concert tours" than those all-time greats and he perfected the "Harden"--signifying a game during which a player has more turnovers than field goals made--but those are the only categories in which Harden should be ranked ahead of Robertson, Olajuwon, West, Jokic, Antetokoumpo, Curry, Erving, or anyone else who legitimately belongs on such a list.

Aldridge, Hollinger, and various staff writers divided the task of writing the book's chapters, with each chapter focusing on one player. In the first chapter by Hollinger--a discussion of Dave DeBusschere, who is ranked 97th on the list--he refers to the 1969 New York Knicks appearing in the Eastern Conference Finals (p. 20), but the NBA did not begin conference play until 1970 (the 1969 Knicks played in the Eastern Division Finals). Perhaps that may seem like a minor typographical error, but a major project featuring numerous editors, writers, and proofreaders should have a very small number of errors, particularly regarding facts that are easy to verify. 

Those are not the book's only easy to verify errors. Kelsey Russo writes that Jerry Lucas "was the first player in American basketball history to win a title at every level--high school, college, an Olympic gold medal, and the NBA" (p.144). Bill Russell accomplished that feat prior to Lucas. Zach Harper's disjointed and rambling account of Robert Parish's career asserts that Parish is one of six players who played in at least 1300 games and "averaged at least 16 points in each of their 17 seasons" (p. 174). Parish averaged less than 16 ppg in 11 of his 21 seasons. Harper also credits Parish with a career field goal percentage of .542 (.537 is the correct number), groups Parish with players who averaged at least 10 rpg during their careers (Parish averaged 9.1 rpg), and states that Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's career field goal percentage is .562 (.559 is the correct number). It is not clear why giggling while Amin Elhassan bashes Bob Cousy and Russell Westbrook qualifies Harper to analyze Parish's accomplishments specifically or basketball history in general.

I am not going to do a page by page analysis/refutation of this 737 page book, so I will limit my primary focus to comparing the book's top 15 players with the 14 players in my basketball Pantheon while along the way discussing the merits of adding a 15th player to my 2008 list.

Here is my Pantheon, with players listed in chronological order:

• Bill Russell
• Elgin Baylor
• Wilt Chamberlain
• Oscar Robertson
• Jerry West
• Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
• Julius Erving
• Larry Bird
• Magic Johnson
• Michael Jordan
• Shaquille O'Neal
• Kobe Bryant
• Tim Duncan
• LeBron James

Here are the top 15 players in The Basketball 100, listed according to the book's rankings:

1. Michael Jordan
2. LeBron James
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. Bill Russell
5. Magic Johnson
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Shaquille O'Neal
8. Tim Duncan
9. Larry Bird
10. Kobe Bryant
11. Hakeem Olajuwon
12. Stephen Curry
13. Oscar Robertson
14. Kevin Durant
15. Julius Erving

The lists have 12 players in common. The differences are that The Basketball 100 omitted Elgin Baylor and Jerry West while including Hakeem Olajuwon, Stephen Curry, and Kevin Durant. Curry and Durant had not yet entered the NBA when I selected my Pantheon, and Olajuwon just missed the cut for my Pantheon, so I will examine Olajuwon's career first before discussing if Curry and Durant should replace Baylor and West or if the Pantheon should be expanded much like the NBA's Greatest Players List expanded from 50 players in 1996 to 76 players in 2021. 

In my first Pantheon article, I explained the criteria for inclusion in the Pantheon: "The players in basketball's pantheon display both durability and a high peak value, which I would define in the following fashion: durability means sustaining a long career (at least 10 years) at or near the top of the game and peak value refers to the top level that the player reached, even if he stayed there only briefly in the midst of a longer career during which he performed at a lower but still exceptional level."

The unfortunate aspect of explaining why a particular player is not in the Pantheon is that such a discussion can seem disrespectful toward the player in question. It should be noted that I have already examined in detail why Olajuwon deserved to be a first ballot Hall of Famer, so suggesting that he ranks in the top 25 all-time instead of the top 14 or 15 should not be seen as a negative.

Olajuwon won two NBA Finals MVPs, two Defensive Player of the Year awards (1993-94), and one regular season MVP (1994). He earned six All-NBA First Team selections (1987-89, 1993-94, 1997), made the All-Star team 12 times, led the league in rebounding twice (1989-90), and led the league in blocked shots three times (1990-91, 1993). Olajuwon's Houston Rockets reached the Western Conference Finals four times (1986, 1994-95, 1997) and advanced to the NBA Finals three times (1986, 1994-95), winning back to back NBA titles in 1994-95. Olajuwon had at least 100 steals and 100 blocked shots in 12 seasons, tying a record set by Julius Erving; in 11 of those seasons, Olajuwon had at least 200 blocked shots, easily making him the career leader in "100/200" seasons. 

Much of Olajuwon's reputation is based on leading the Rockets to back to back championships, and dominating 1995 regular season MVP David Robinson in the 1995 Western Conference Finals. Those are superb accomplishments, but it is worth noting that overall in head to head competition Olajuwon and Robinson posted comparable statistics while Robinson's teams won 32 out of 48 games.

I am not a big fan of playing the "What if?" game, but when evaluating Olajuwon's career it is fair to ask if he would have won a championship had Michael Jordan not retired from the NBA for nearly two full seasons during Jordan's prime. Jordan's decision should not be held against Olajuwon--who can only outplay the players and teams in front of him--but it is pertinent to wonder about Olajuwon's two titles in light of the fact that in his other 18 seasons he managed just two appearances in the Western Conference Finals and only one appearance in the NBA Finals. With the exception of Oscar Robertson, Pantheon members routinely made deep playoff runs--and Robertson's Cincinnati Royals often had to contend with either Bill Russell or Wilt Chamberlain in a small league with highly concentrated elite-level talent. 

Selections to the All-League (ABA or NBA) First Team and top five MVP finishes are two quick ways to assess the combination of high peak value with durability; this does not mean that I selected my Pantheon based on those awards, but it means that the players who I selected often received those honors in recognition of their greatness. With the exception of Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell, every member of my basketball Pantheon earned at least eight All-NBA/All-ABA First Team selections. Chamberlain and Russell fought each other for that honor throughout the 1960s, with Chamberlain making the All-NBA First Team seven times and Russell earning three selections (including one before Chamberlain entered the NBA)--but Chamberlain finished in the top five in MVP voting 10 times (winning the award four times) and Russell finished in the top five in MVP voting 11 times (winning the award five times). Elgin Baylor finished in the top five in MVP voting seven times, Jerry West and Shaquille O'Neal each did so eight times, and every other Pantheon member did so at least nine times. Without exception, each Pantheon member was a legitimate MVP candidate for the better part of a decade, and some Pantheon members were legitimate MVP candidates for longer than a decade.

Olajuwon made the All-NBA First Team six times, and he finished in the top five in MVP voting six times. Olajuwon was a great player, but he was not quite a Pantheon-level player; the Pantheon players had longer runs of MVP/All-NBA First Team level dominance, and in general their teams had more playoff success (with the exception of Baylor, Robertson, and West, but those three players were the best at their positions for a solid decade). Instead of ranking Olajuwon 11th all-time, I would place him somewhere in the top 25.

Recency bias works in favor of Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant; younger fans may barely remember Kobe Bryant, let alone Michael Jordan and the great players who preceded Jordan. It has become increasingly popular to assert that Curry is one of the 10 greatest players ever, and Durant is often mentioned as one of the 10-15 greatest players ever--but, for the reasons listed below, I would not rank Curry or Durant ahead of any of the players in my Pantheon, nor am I inclined to expand my Pantheon to include either of them. As is the case with Olajuwon, ranking Curry and Durant in the top 25 all-time should not be considered disrespectful; using the same standards that I have consistently used, Curry and Durant just don't quite make the Pantheon cut.

Labels: Elgin Baylor, Hakeem Olajuwon, Jerry West, Julius Erving, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Pantheon series, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 1:41 AM

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Larry Jones' Forgotten Streak of 30 Point Games

Larry Jones, who passed away on August 16, 2025 just over a month before his 83rd birthday, earned four straight ABA All-Star selections (1968-71), made the All-ABA First Team three times (1968-70), and twice finished in the top five in ABA regular season MVP voting (fourth in 1968, third in 1969). He averaged a career-high 28.4 ppg in 1968-69, ranking third in the league in scoring behind Hall of Famers Rick Barry (34.0 ppg) and Connie Hawkins (30.2 ppg).  

Jones' professional career began in the Eastern Basketball League in 1964 before he averaged 5.7 ppg in 23 games for the Philadelphia 76ers during the 1964-65 season. He then spent two seasons in the Eastern Basketball League before signing with the Denver Rockets in the ABA's inaugural season. Jones turned down an offer from the L.A. Lakers before joining the Rockets. Jones averaged 22.9 ppg for the Rockets in 1967-68, and the Rockets went 45-33 in the regular season before losing 3-2 to the New Orleans Buccaneers in the playoffs.

In an interview with the Be a Baller podcast, Jones talked about his streak of 23 straight games scoring at least 30 points during the 1968-69 season. I pride myself on my knowledge of basketball history and I know a lot about Jones' career, but I had no idea that he had put together such a streak. It appears that Connie Hawkins posted the second longest such streak in ABA history (16 games in the 1968-69 season), and I know of only two longer streaks in NBA history (there are various lists of 30 point game streaks online, but many of the lists have information that does not match up with the game log data at BasketballReference.com): Wilt Chamberlain (of course) scored at least 30 points in 65 straight games en route to averaging a record 50.4 ppg in the 1961-62 season, and James Harden flopped and flailed his way to at least 30 points in 32 straight games in the 2018-19 season. 

Harden's presence on the list is yet another example of how the NBA's emphasis on helping offensive players/hindering defensive players has skewed the record book. Harden repeatedly committed blatant traveling offenses, including traveling during his signature step back move into a three point shot--making a mockery of the legitimate and beautiful step back moves utilized by players such as Adrian Dantley, Larry Bird, and Dell Curry. 

The only good thing about Harden's fraudulent streak is that it brought some attention to Jones' streak. Jones mentioned during the podcast interview that he received some phone calls from media members asking his thoughts about Harden approaching and then surpassing his streak. Jones indicated that he did not think much about Harden's streak--but that on reflection he realized the magnitude of what he accomplished during his own streak as a young ABA player. 

During his 23 game streak of 30 point games, Jones averaged 35.6 ppg. The Rockets went 13-10 in those games--they finished the season with a 44-34 record--and Jones also averaged 6.4 rpg, 1.3 apg, and just .7 tpg during those 23 games. He was an excellent rebounder for a 6-2 guard, and he was much more of a scorer than a playmaker, but in 1969-70 he ranked fourth in the ABA in assists with a career-high 5.7 apg.

Jones averaged 24.9 ppg in 1969-70 (sixth in the ABA) and 24.3 ppg in 1970-71 (seventh in the ABA) before being slowed by injuries. Jones bounced around the ABA to the Floridians, Utah Stars, and Dallas Chaparrals before finishing his pro career averaging 10.0 ppg in 72 games (including 60 starts) for the 1974-75 Philadelphia 76ers.

Jones was from Columbus, Ohio, and he enjoyed a successful college career at the University of Toledo,  averaging 20.9 ppg and 9.0 rpg in 63 games. After Jones retired as a professional player, he spent two seasons as an assistant coach with the Detroit Pistons and he was the head coach of the Las Vegas Dealers in the Western Basketball Association in 1978-79 before that league folded. He also worked as director of player personnel for the Women's Professional Basketball League, and he later coached the Columbus Minks in the Women's American Basketball Association. Jones earned a master's degree in education from Ohio State, and he worked in Columbus as a substitute teacher while also running youth basketball camps.

Labels: ABA, Connie Hawkins, Dallas Chaparrals, Denver Rockets, Floridians, James Harden, Larry Jones, Philadelphia 76ers, Toledo, Utah Stars, Wilt Chamberlain

posted by David Friedman @ 10:42 PM

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Charley Rosen: Basketball Bard

Charley Rosen, author of more than two dozen books and confidant to Hall of Fame basketball coach Phil Jackson, passed away on September 13 at the age of 84. Last year, Rosen was inducted in the New York City Basketball Hall of Fame. Few people embodied the essence of being a basketball lifer more than Rosen. The 6-8 Rosen earned team MVP honors in each of his three seasons at Hunter College (1959-62) while setting school records for scoring and rebounding. In 1961, he played on the gold-medal winning U.S. squad in the Maccabiah Games, along with future pros Larry Brown and Art Heyman. Rosen never played in the NBA or ABA, but he spent some time with the Scranton Miners of the Eastern Basketball League (EBL) before teaching English at Hofstra. 

Rosen wrote many articles for a variety of magazines, including  "Dr. J Makes the Whole World Feel Good" for the March 1973 issue of Sport, which was then edited by the incomparable Dick Schaap. Rosen had high praise for Julius Erving, who was in the middle of his second pro season: "By the time he finishes his career, the people who care about basketball history may look back and say there were two doctors who shaped the sport. The first was Dr. James Naismith--and all he did was invent the game. Dr. J made it an art."

In 1975, Rosen published his first book, Maverick, which he co-wrote with Jackson, who then played for the New York Knicks. Stan Love, who played five NBA/ABA seasons with the Baltimore Bullets, L.A. Lakers, and San Antonio Spurs, introduced his friend Rosen to Jackson, and the rest is basketball (and writing) history. Stan Love, who passed away on April 27, 2025, is the father of current NBA player Kevin Love, and the younger brother of Beach Boys singer Mike Love. 

In 1979-80, Rosen coached the men's team at Bard College; he described his experiences at Bard in his book Players and Pretenders. Rosen served as Phil Jackson's assistant with the CBA's Albany Patroons from 1983-86 before becoming a CBA head coach with Albany, Rockford, Oklahoma City, and Savannah. Rosen's experiences in the CBA formed the basis of his hilarious 1992 novel The Cockroach Basketball League. Rosen coached the SUNY New Paltz women's team from 1993-95, and subsequently became a regular contributor to a variety of websites, including ESPN.com, FoxSports.com, and HoopsHype.com. For the past 30 years or so, he typically produced a new book every other year. 

Rosen was an engaging storyteller in addition to being a shrewd observer of basketball strategy and tactics. Overall, I found his work to be entertaining and informative, but it must be noted that Rosen could be sloppy with his research, and some of his writing contains egregious errors. I won't give him a pass in life or death for errors that are inexcusable, but I will say that I generally found his skill set analysis of players and teams to be on target. For example, Rosen understood that Kobe Bryant was better than Dwyane Wade at a time when many media members who were biased in favor of Shaquille O'Neal--and thus against O'Neal's former teammate Bryant--could not bring themselves to acknowledge Bryant's greatness. Rosen also displayed an astute understanding of the differences between NBA basketball and FIBA basketball, and he explained why statistics can be very misleading. It is popular in many quarters to assert that college basketball is somehow a purer or more fundamentally sound form of basketball than NBA basketball, but Rosen cut through that nonsense nearly two decades ago with words that are still relevant today: "The NBA game has a huge advantage in player talent, offensive and defensive prowess, coaching, officiating and the overall quality of performance in every aspect but one. The only advantage the college game enjoys is the consistent enthusiasm of its players. And this is true only because some veteran NBA players on basement-dwelling teams will take an occasional game off late in the season. The worst NBA team would trounce the NCAA champs by upwards of 30 points." 

Rosen's death caused me to think back to my formative years as a basketball fan. I have enjoyed watching, playing, reading about, and writing about basketball since I was a very young child. Basketball is a lifelong passion for me just as it was for Rosen. Basketball books that I read before the age of 15 that significantly impacted and influenced me include Basketball's Biggest Stars by Angelo Resciniti, many editions of The Complete Handbook of Pro Basketball edited by Zander Hollander, A Loose Game by Lewis Cole, The Breaks of the Game by David Halberstam, Daniel Rudman's 1980 anthology Take it to the Hoop, Stuff Good Players Should Know by Dick DeVenzio, The Legend of Dr. J by Marty Bell, and The Lonely Heroes by Merv Harris--but that list would not be complete without Rosen's God, Man and Basketball Jones, a book that crackles with memorable phrases and keen insights; it was published in 1979, and I read it from cover to cover some time in the early 1980s when I was 10 or 11. An important concept from that book that stuck with me ever since is that you cannot fully understand what is happening in a basketball game if you are only watching the ball, because there are nine players who do not have the ball whose movements (or lack of movement) are significant. A funny line from that book that still makes me chuckle is Rosen's description of Elvin Hayes after delineating the different ways that various forwards play and after noting Hayes' propensity to shoot fadeaway jumpers: "If there are small forwards, power forwards, defensive forwards, and penetrating forwards, then Elvin Hayes is the only backwards-forward in the NBA."

At the end of the first chapter of God, Man, and Basketball Jones, Rosen waxed poetic about his love for basketball:

Basketball is one-on-one and burn-on-burn.

Basketball is ballet with defense.

Basketball is a blur of acrobatic giants, perilous abandon, and ram-slam-in-your-mother's-eyes dunk shots.

And for even the most casual fan, basketball can also be a dribbling, leaping, flowing salvation. 

He concluded the book with this thought: "He who lives by the jump shot dies. But a true vision of Basketball Jones releases the selfless energy that sustains the game, sustains life, and brings them both to victory." 

If heaven is a playground--to borrow the title of Rick Telander's classic 1976 book about basketball in New York City that I read a few years after my first exposure to Rosen's work--then Rosen is hooping now without having to worry about bad knees or bad calls, and he is enjoying the full glory of the selfless energy of Basketball Jones.

Labels: Angelo Reciniti, Basketball Jones, CBA, Charley Rosen, David Halberstam, Dick DeVenzio, Julius Erving, Kobe Bryant, Lewis Cole, Marty Bell, Merv Harris, Phil Jackson

posted by David Friedman @ 4:05 AM

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Lindy's Pro Basketball 2025-26 is on Sale Now

When Lindy's Pro Basketball appears in stores you know that the NBA season will soon begin. The 2025-26 edition of Lindy's Pro Basketball has 30 team previews, plus nine feature stories: "Scopin' the NBA" (David Friedman and Roland Lazenby recap major off-season stories), "Flagg Sidesteps Comparisons" (D.J. Siddiqi discusses the 2025 number one overall draft pick), "The NBA Gets Defensive" (Michael Bradley dissects Oklahoma City's championship-winning defense), "J-Drip" (Roland Lazenby profiles Jalen Williams), "Keeping the Faith" (Lyn Scarborough recounts the faith journey of A.J. Griffin), "NBA Report Card" (Roland Lazenby grades each team's off-season moves), "A Look Ahead" (Carl Berman scouts the 2026 NBA Draft), "NBA Fantasy Guide" (Mike Ashley provides advice for fantasy basketball enthusiasts), and "A Look Back" (Lazenby recalls the 1995-96 season when the Chicago Bulls went 72-10 en route to winning the first championship of their second "three-peat").

In addition to contributing to "Scopin' the NBA" for the first time--I submitted the pieces about the Player Participation Policy, Junior Bridgeman's legacy, Oklahoma City's pressure defense, and Gregg Popovich's retirement from coaching--I wrote eight team previews and sidebar articles this year: Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, Sacramento Kings, San Antonio Spurs, and Utah Jazz. My sidebar articles discuss, respectively, the Mavericks' historic tendency to make risky player moves, the Jimmy Butler enigma, Saddiq Bey's comeback attempt, Alex Caruso's defense, Toumani Camara and the Dayton connection to the NBA, the Kings' poor record since 2006, Gregg Popovich's legacy/Mitch Johnson's burden, and Utah's front office keeps it all in the Ainge family.

This is the 17th year that I have contributed to Lindy's Pro Basketball dating back to 2005 (with interruptions for the 2011 lockout, my law school attendance in 2014-15, and 2020 because Lindy's Pro Basketball was not published in the wake of COVID-19). As always, I am grateful to Roland Lazenby for providing the opportunity to contribute to Lindy's Pro Basketball, and I am proud to be associated with the finished product.

If you do not see the magazine in any stores in your area, you can order a copy online. 

Selected Previous Articles About Lindy's Pro Basketball:

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2024-25 is on Sale Now  

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2023-24 is on Sale Now  

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2022-23 is on Sale Now 

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2021-2022 is in Stores Now 

"Forever Mamba" Pays Tribute to Kobe Bryant 

Look for Lindy's Pro Basketball 2019-20 in Stores Now 

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2018-19 Is Available Now 

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2017-18 is on Sale Now

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, Lindy's Pro Basketball, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, Roland Lazenby, Sacramento Kings, San Antonio Spurs, Utah Jazz

posted by David Friedman @ 11:37 PM

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